On this webinar, Origin Co-CEO David Scherer was joined by JLL executives, Julia Georgules (Head of Americas Research & Strategy) and Lauro Ferroni (Head of Capital Markets Research, Americas), who shared their data-driven insights on the current impact of tariffs and the outlook for multifamily moving forward.
Below are five key takeaways from the webinar:
1. Multifamily Fundamentals Remain Strong Despite Market Volatility
Despite the uncertainty created by new tariffs and rising interest rates, Q1 2025 showed record apartment absorption, declining new supply, and continued demand due to the growing affordability gap between renting and owning.
2. Supply Constraints Could Lead to Significant Rent Growth
With multifamily construction starts down 77% from their peak and many developers pausing activity due to cost pressures and financing hurdles, a supply-demand imbalance is forming. This could trigger substantial rent increases by 2026–2027.
3. Tariffs Indirectly Impact Real Estate—But the Effects Vary
Tariffs aren’t imposed on real estate directly, but they influence the market through increased construction costs, economic uncertainty, and shifts in global trade. Industrial and logistics sectors are most immediately affected, while multifamily remains comparatively resilient.
4. Rising Cost of Homeownership Is Driving More Renters to Multifamily
Buying a home is now 69% more expensive than renting on average, keeping people in rental housing longer. Mortgage applications are at their lowest point since 1995, reinforcing multifamily as a key beneficiary of this affordability crunch.
5. Now May Be the Smart Time to Invest
Historically, the best-performing multifamily assets were purchased during early-cycle recoveries. Experts believe current market conditions resemble those prior to strong vintages in 2002 and 2010—suggesting now could be an opportune time to invest before the next upswing.
