Quick Take: We leverage our proprietary machine-learning platform, Multilytics®, to guide investment decisions in high-growth Sunbelt markets. Unlike traditional real estate tools that rely on broad ZIP code data, Multilytics analyzes data at the street level to forecast rent growth, supply pipelines and demand trends with precision. It informed recent acquisitions in Charlotte and Nashville, where Multilytics projects annual rent growth exceeding 5%. As Sunbelt construction slows, Multilytics helps identify early signs of recovery and long-term rent upside, helping us navigate volatile market conditions and invest in areas with high potential for future growth.
As rent dynamics shift across Sunbelt markets, Origin Investments is leaning on its proprietary suite of machine-learning models, Multilytics®️, to help our investment team make informed, forward-looking decisions with AI rent forecasting. The tool has become central to our strategic approach—especially in high-growth but oversupplied submarkets such as Nashville, Charlotte and Austin. Multilytics has become a critical differentiator, providing sharper visibility into rent trends and risk-adjusted returns amid volatile macro conditions.
Beyond Third-Party Research in Multifamily Investing
Traditional real estate underwriting often relies on third-party market reports that segment data by broad ZIP codes. But our experience revealed a fundamental flaw: Properties at opposite ends of a ZIP code may appeal to different renter cohorts, operate with different dynamics, and face diverging risks. That’s why our team of data scientists developed Multilytics—a proprietary, machine-learning rent forecasting platform that carves the country into 100-meter squares and pulls live data from over 11 million multifamily units daily.
This approach allows us to fine-tune our underwriting and understand supply and demand not just within a neighborhood but at the street level. Multilytics studies more than 4 billion data points monthly, including demographic shifts, leasing velocity, rent concessions and new construction activity, in addition to a significant amount of macro-economic data. The accuracy of the results speaks for itself. And because we hold ourselves accountable to our predictions, every year we compare our forecasts for year-over-year rent growth with actual data. Last year, our accuracy report showed that for the first six months of 2024, Multilytics forecasts were within 96% accuracy for our target markets and within 99% accuracy at the national level.
Guiding Investment in Oversupplied Submarkets
The vast majority of supply-demand analysis is backward-looking—and often it isn’t available until weeks after the demand data is publicly available. Multilytics goes beyond reviewing raw absorption and vacancy statistics. It utilizes proprietary AI-powered algorithms to forecast demand, future supply pipelines and demographic patterns. These forward-looking insights gave us the conviction to acquire a property in Charlotte in April 2025 in an off-market deal. The luxury property (pictured above) joined other offerings in Origin Exchange, our 1031 exchange program. It was completed in 2023 and offers 323 apartments and townhomes in a vibrant and desirable location.
Despite headlines around oversupply in this submarket of Charlotte—2,200 units in lease-up and another 3,700 under construction—Multilytics projects a compound annual rent growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% over the next five years—well above the 4% threshold that we consider strong. The decision was bolstered by internal performance data from another nearby Origin asset, Trailside NoDa, which saw robust lease-up activity—35 to 40 leases per month during peak leasing months—despite the competitive landscape.
The first quarter of 2025 was a pivotal moment for Charlotte, which absorbed a record 4,900 units. In that context, Multilytics’ forecasted rent growth isn’t just aspirational; it reflects an actual supply-demand inflection that many investors may be missing.
AI Rent Forecasting Shows Upside in Nashville Submarket
Origin’s Nashville Queens DST acquisition offers another compelling case. Located in the Wedgwood-Houston (WeHo) neighborhood—a high-barrier-to-entry, culture-rich submarket just south of downtown Nashville—the 221-unit property features boutique-style amenities and integrated retail, including a rooftop oyster bar and a music venue.
Here, Multilytics forecast similarly strong rent growth of over 5% annually, despite broader market concerns of performance within infill Nashville submarkets. That forecast underpinned Origin’s confidence in underwriting a burn-off of market concessions and robust growth in underlying effective rents over the next five years.
Supporting Strategic Transitions with Data
The AI rent forecasting ability of Multilytics also plays a key role in supporting the two-stage strategy in the Origin Exchange program. Through the program, investors can complete a 1031 exchange into a Delaware Statutory Trust (DST). After a two-year hold, Origin has the option to convert the DST into the IncomePlus Fund via a tax-deferred 721 exchange. That transition provides long-term diversification and professional management across a $1 billion portfolio—an attractive proposition for investors looking to exit the day-to-day burdens of direct property ownership.
Our use of Multilytics is critical not only for acquisitions but also for projecting portfolio-level growth and cash flows within our all-weather IncomePlus Fund, which we designed to provide tax-efficient passive income. Multilytics gives us the conviction to tactically deploy capital where we see the potential for durable rent growth.
Rent Forecasting in Our Broader Market Strategy
Sunbelt markets, long favored for inbound migration and job growth, have faced near-term softness due to a surge of new deliveries. However, as construction starts have declined—down 35% since peaking in Q3 2022, according to Newmark—Multilytics is identifying when and where the rent rebound is likely to begin.
As we navigate a dynamic and sometimes contradictory Sunbelt multifamily market, Multilytics is proving to be a crucial asset—not only for property selection, but for strategic timing and risk management. By going deeper than generic ZIP code analysis and synthesizing billions of datapoints, our ability to forecast rent growth is a competitive advantage. In a world where many multifamily property developers have access to the same surface-level data, it is how you interpret it—and how far ahead you can see—that makes all the difference. With the AI rent forecasting of Multilytics, our investment team can make smarter, sharper decisions about which submarkets and properties may have the highest potential to outperform.
