Quick Take: The rent growth numbers investors are reading in the news are real — they are just measuring the wrong thing. Most widely reported figures track asking rents on new leases only, which represent a shrinking slice of actual leasing activity. When you account for renewals — which now make up 57% of all leasing — the picture looks materially different, and considerably more favorable. The metric that matters is blended rent growth, and understanding how it works may change how you evaluate multifamily real estate today.
The Number Everyone Quotes Is the Wrong Number
When a headline announces that apartment rents are flat, or even declining, it is almost certainly drawing from asking rent data on new leases. This is the figure reported by most data aggregators, most financial media, and most market commentary. It is also, by itself, an incomplete picture of how a multifamily property actually performs.
Asking rent on a new lease is the price a landlord advertises to attract a brand-new tenant. It reflects competitive pressure from new supply, seasonal demand, and local market dynamics. In markets like Austin, Denver, and Nashville, where a historic wave of new construction delivered thousands of units over the past three years, asking rents have come under real pressure. That pressure is legitimate. But it tells only part of the story.
The part it omits, renewals, is dominating the landscape.
Renewals Now Drive the Majority of Leasing Activity
Renters are renewing their existing leases at historically high levels. According to CBRE, 57% of all leasing activity is now renewals. This is up from 51% in 2015 and 48% in 2005. It means that for every ten lease transactions at a stabilized multifamily property, six of them are residents choosing to stay, rather than prospects being won from the open market. And those residents are not negotiating from the same position as a first-time prospect walking through the door.
Renewal rents are outpacing asking rents for new leases. The reason is straightforward: a resident who has lived in a community for a year or more has absorbed moving costs, established routines, and built relationships. The friction of relocation is real, and operators who manage resident satisfaction effectively can price renewals at a premium to what the open market would bear for a new tenant.
Renewals Also Protect the Bottom Line
The metric that captures the full picture is blended rent growth — a weighted average of rent changes across both new leases and renewals. The case for tracking blended rent growth is not only about revenue, but also about cost. Every time a resident moves out, a property absorbs turnover costs: unit make-ready expenses, leasing commissions, concessions to attract the next tenant, and lost revenue during the vacancy period. In some markets, operators have offered extended concession periods of free rent to attract new tenants, making the economics of retaining an existing resident at a modest rent increase even more compelling.
A retained resident is worth considerably more than a new one, even at a slightly lower rent. When renewal rates are high and renewal rents are growing, a property’s net operating income can hold up, or even improve, in environments where the asking rent headline looks discouraging. This is the dynamic that separates operators who understand their rent roll from those who manage to a number on a data screen.
How We Apply This Framework
At Origin, blended rent growth is one of the primary metrics our Multilytics® platform tracks at the submarket level. When we underwrite a new acquisition or evaluate the trajectory of an existing asset, we are not looking only at what a new tenant would pay today, but we are also modeling the full lease-up, the renewal curve, and the long-run blended performance of the rent roll. The difference between 1% and 2% rent growth on a stabilized 300-unit asset can translate to a meaningful difference in valuation over a five-year hold. That gap compounds, and it is almost entirely invisible in the data most investors are reading.
The supply cycle that pressured asking rents over the past two years is real, and we have been transparent about its effects across our portfolio. But supply peaks and new multifamily construction starts have fallen sharply. As shown in the Newmark 1Q26 U.S. MF Capital Markets Conditions & Trends report data below, deliveries are expected to decline meaningfully through 2026 and into 2027. As the pipeline clears, asking rents are positioned to recover. Blended rents, supported by a strong renewal base, were never as weak as the headlines suggested.
Reading the Rent Roll, Not the Headline
If you are evaluating multifamily real estate, whether through a fund, a direct investment, or an allocation to a private vehicle, these are the metrics that will give you a more accurate read on property performance than asking rents alone.
The four metrics below give a more complete picture of multifamily income performance than asking rents alone.
| Metric | What It Measures | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Blended rent growth* | Combined new lease and renewal rent change, weighted by volume | The true income trajectory of a stabilized asset |
| Renewal rate / retention % | Share of expiring leases that renew in place | Predictor of turnover costs and occupancy stability |
| Effective rent (net of concessions) | Actual rent collected after free-rent periods | Real revenue, not advertised price |
| Asking rent growth (new leases only) | Market pricing for incoming tenants | Useful for market comparison; misleading as a standalone performance measure |
The next time a headline announces that rents are flat or falling, ask what it is actually measuring. If the answer is asking rents on new leases, you have a partial picture at best. The operators who understand this distinction, and build their strategy around it, are the ones positioned to find real value in an environment where most investors are reading the wrong number.
FAQ
What is blended rent growth?
Blended rent growth is a weighted average of rent changes across both new leases and renewals, combined by volume. It captures the true income trajectory of a stabilized asset, rather than just new lease pricing.
Why do rent growth headlines look weak right now?
Most headlines draw from asking rent data on new leases, which has come under real pressure in markets like Austin, Denver, and Nashville due to a historic wave of new construction over the past three years. That figure excludes renewals, which now account for 57% of all leasing activity, up from 51% in 2015 and 48% in 2005.
Are renewal rents higher or lower than new lease rents?
Renewal rents are outpacing asking rents for new leases, since renewing residents have already absorbed moving costs and operators can price the renewal at a premium to what the open market would bear for a new tenant.
Why does resident retention matter for property performance?
Every move-out creates turnover costs, including unit make-ready expenses, leasing commissions, concessions, and lost revenue during the vacancy period. A retained resident is worth considerably more than a new one, even at a slightly lower rent.
How does Origin factor this into underwriting?
Origin’s Multilytics® platform tracks blended rent growth as one of its primary metrics at the submarket level. When underwriting a new acquisition or evaluating an existing asset, Origin models the full lease-up, the renewal curve, and the long-run blended performance of the rent roll, not just what a new tenant would pay today.
Is blended rent growth a standardized industry metric?
No. Blended rent growth is not a universally standardized metric, and Origin’s methodology may differ from third-party sources.
