As co-CEO of Origin Investments, I’ve had the privilege of getting to know some of the most sophisticated private investors and advisors over the past 18 years. One trait stands out among the very best: They never fall in love with a projected return when evaluating a private real estate fund.
They know pro forma numbers are a useful reference point but rarely accurate. In fact, the best managers in private real estate—including Origin—have a perfect 100% track record of one thing: a 0% success rate at hitting our exact forecasted internal rate of return (IRR).
We’ve underwritten deals to a 16% IRR that ultimately delivered more than 45%, and we’ve underwritten deals to an 18% IRR that delivered less than 6%. That is not manager error; that is simply the reality that no one can predict the future with any real accuracy. Interest rates, construction costs, insurance spikes, supply pipelines—there are too many uncontrollable variables, as the last few years have vividly reminded all of us.
The pro forma and its financial projections aren’t irrelevant. For us it’s the essential first filter—only multifamily deals that clear a disciplined, achievable base case ever move forward. Sophisticated investors don’t ignore it. They simply refuse to let it anchor the conversation or be the deciding factor.
What Matters Most When Evaluating a Fund
Over the past couple of months, I’ve taken dozens of calls with individuals and registered investment advisors about our new Select Asset Fund. In almost every conversation, the topic of projected returns comes up, and I share the same thoughts that I outlined above. I then remind them of an investing truth: The best returns in any asset class almost always come immediately after the worst years, and multifamily real estate has just endured three of its toughest years in the past two decades.
That single observation tends to shift the entire conversation. Suddenly the focus moves from the projected returns to the variables that actually drive long-term outcomes.
So, what should an investor actually evaluate when they evaluate a private real estate fund? Here are the four lenses we find most important in deciding whether an opportunity like the Select Asset Fund belongs in a portfolio:
1. Vintage and Cycle Timing
Real estate is cyclical, and vintage explains return dispersion more than almost any other variable. The past three years (2022 to 2025) have been among the most difficult 36-month periods for multifamily performance in the past two decades. Historically, the strongest periods have followed the weakest ones, with the 2009-16 vintages as the clearest example. The Select Asset Fund focuses exclusively on the 2026-28 delivery cycle.
Current macro conditions that are already measurable:
- Homeownership is about 64% more expensive than renting—the widest gap on record.
- Multifamily construction starts are down about 30% from the 2022 peak; new deliveries are expected to decline materially from 2026 to 2028.
- In the Sun Belt and Mountain-region submarkets that we target, absorption is running roughly 3x that of new supply, and five-year rent-growth forecasts exceed the national average.
2. Manager Capability and Cycle Experience
Origin has operated exclusively in Class A multifamily for 18 years, across development, acquisition and lending strategies. That singular focus has required navigating multiple full cycles.
- Development deals closed in the 2015-19 period averaged about 30% net IRR and about 2.5x equity multiple.
- Development deals closed in the 2020-24 period still produced positive returns (7% to 20% net IRR) and no realized losses.
3. Build-to-Core Strategy and Tax Efficiency
The Select Asset Fund is designed as a build-to-core vehicle. Capital will be deployed into five ground-up Class A developments that are expected to reach stabilization in approximately four years.
At that point investors will have the option to:
- Redeem their investment at fair-market value, or
- Roll in a tax-efficient manner into an optional income sleeve targeting 5% to 6% net annual cash distributions plus an estimated 3% to 4% appreciation.
Depreciation and fixed-rate permanent debt make the 5%-6% cash yield the pre-tax equivalent of roughly 9% to 10% on most taxable fixed-income alternatives.
4. Fund Structure and Alignment Features
More key details about the Select Asset Fund:
- $100 million target size, goal of five 2026-vintage assets, expected full deployment within 12 months.
- Five-year total term (including the one-year capital-call period)—eliminating extended fund tails common in private real estate.
- Co-invest sleeve: Investors committing at least $500,000 to the fund may allocate additional capital alongside the fund with no management fee and no carried interest on the additional capital. This typically improves blended returns by 200 to 300 basis points for participants.
Positioned for Outperformance
It’s been three years since we launched a dedicated multifamily growth fund because the environment wasn’t favorable. We believe that the alignment of vintage, macro tailwinds, strategy and structure make this fund an opportunity to produce favorable returns for our investment partners. We invite you to evaluate it through the same disciplined framework we use ourselves.
If you are a current investment partner, we thank you for your continued partnership and for considering this opportunity. If you are a prospective investor and would like to evaluate this private real estate fund further, the team and I are always available and would welcome an opportunity to connect.
